3 ways Activity companies can forecast traveler demand

The biggest reason not to travel abroad within the next year was "concerns of COVID-19 infection (60.2%). Recently, the number of infected people is rising again, and there are many cases of re-infection, so concerns about infection while traveling abroad are also growing. However, travel demand can soar again due to the government's deregulation policy. How can travel agencies predict and monitor traveler demand in the unpredictable travel industry?

3 Ways for forecasting traveler demand

According to a recent travel behavior report in the era of endemic (cyclic epidemic of infectious diseases) published by the travel newspaper on the 30th anniversary of its foundation, the biggest reason not to travel abroad within the next year was "COVID-19 infection concerns (60.2%). Recently, the number of infected people is rising again, and there are many cases of re-infection, so concerns about infection while traveling abroad are also growing. However, travel demand can soar again due to the government's deregulation policy. How can travel agencies predict and monitor traveler demand in the unpredictable travel industry?

Identify entry restriction stages and fully free travel countries

Tough entry conditions raise barriers to entry to travel, making it difficult for travelers to decide to travel easily. If separate quarantine is required, especially office workers may not be able to travel due to their schedules, and demanding document submission can also raise the hurdle for travel. Therefore, travel agencies need to continuously monitor the entry restriction stage and quarantine or changes in required documents in the country currently offering the product. This is because the demand will also increase as the hurdles disappear one by one, such as the disappearance of one document to submit or the document submission process being online like Korea's Q-code and being exempted from quarantine according to conditions.

The entry restriction stage includes complete refusal to entry, countries that can enter after quarantine for a certain period of time, countries that can enter after submitting proof documents, and countries that can enter completely. Currently, COVID-19-related entry restrictions are all different from country to country, and they are changing from time to time, so we need to take a close look at them. In line with the recent endemic trend, more and more countries are lifting quarantine or entry ban on foreign entrants, but some countries still offer strict entry conditions such as document submission and quarantine guidelines. Information on entry conditions of countries that currently provide products can be found on the website of Naver Overseas Travel and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information.

Naver Overseas Travel: https://travel.naver.com/overseas

Foreign Ministry Safety Travel Notice: https://www.0404.go.kr/dev/notice_list.mofa

On the other hand, there are countries that can travel completely freely. If entry-related measures are completely lifted, we can predict the highest demand for travelers. As of now (22.09.07) there are 60 countries that can enter without conditions. By region, Europe occupies the highest proportion with 37 countries allowed. The countries do not need PCR tests and quarantine measures when entering the country, so Koreans can travel freely. We will be able to prepare for a surge in traveler's demand by constantly checking whether the country that provides travel packages announces "release of entry-related measures for inbound travelers from Korea."1.

Confirmation of PCR test criteria and documents to be prepared

There are countries that need PCR test results as one of the submitted documents. Currently, 25 countries are allowed to enter the country conditionally for vaccination (09.07), and the criteria for submitting PCR test and rapid antigen test results are all different by country, so it is necessary to check the PCR test criteria according to the main checklist below. If vaccination conditional entry is lifted or eased, the demand for non-vaccinated travelers in addition to regular travelers may increase.

PCR Checklist

Method: PCR test, rapid antigen test
Location: It is largely divided before and after entry, and designated inspection stations, airports, etc. in the relevant country
Time: 72 hours before entering the country, 48 hours before boarding the plane, etc
Format: Printed copy, electronic document, e-mail submission, etc
Check the latest pcr criteria:
Foreign Ministry Safety Travel Notice: https://www.0404.go.kr/dev/notice_list.mofa

As the COVID-19 situation continues, the burden of overseas travel for Korean tourists can be reduced and demand can rise without policy changes. Therefore, regardless of policy monitoring, it is possible to predict an increase or decrease in demand depending on the trend of national overseas tourists, airline policy changes, and the number of flights.

According to the Korea Tourism Data Lab, the current trend of overseas tourists has increased more than five times compared to last year. In fact, the number of overseas tourists reached 400,000 in June this year, compared to 80,000 in June. Moreover, compared to the beginning of this year, when ticket prices soared due to poor supply of flights, as of June, 50% of the pre-COVID-19 era is expected to stably cover the rapidly increasing demand for travel.

A renewed journey

The demand for travelers travel is soaring again, ending a dark period that seemed like they could never travel. As a result, the price of tickets has soared and travel package sales have been activated throughout the travel industry. As evidenced by this, the number of passengers at Incheon Airport has more than doubled compared to last year. To be able to respond quickly to the growing demand of these customers, it is important to efficiently register, sell, and manage travel packages across multiple online channels. The Axe service is an innovative solution that can introduce travel packages to dozens of travel sales channels in a single registration. As consumers' search traffic for travel packages surges, it is important to quickly deliver good travel products and content to customers. In particular, in order to attract general users who search for travel packages through general searches without frequently used travel agency channels, the service of "Ax" is a very simple and effective solution.

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